Trends in CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, SF₆

Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO₂)

• Mauna Loa, Hawaii
• Global
• CO₂ Animation
• CO₂ Emissions

Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Combustion

This video shows the accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas (fossil fuels) over a two-year time period (2011-2012). The video begins with a map of the world with no fossil fuel CO₂. As time progresses the viewer watches the global accumulation of CO₂ emissions from all fossil fuel sources. Large emitters such as Eastern Asia, Western Europe, and the North East of North America stand out. By the end of 2012, the entire Northern Hemisphere is red, illustrating a total accumulation of about 9 to 10 ppm of CO₂.

The amount of CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel burning comes from the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO₂ (ODIAC) and is based on economic data. Most of the emissions are in the Northern Hemisphere.

A computer model of the atmosphere called TM5 (http://tm5.sourceforge.net/) was used to simulate the movement of atmospheric CO₂ globally, using winds and atmospheric mixing as derived from global weather forecasts. One can see the movement of CO₂ throughout the atmosphere as wind patterns transport and disperse emissions from their sources. Easterlies transport CO₂ along the tropics while wind patterns in the high latitudes promote rapid atmospheric mixing throughout the Northern Hemisphere.   Because the exchange of air between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere is much slower, it is not until the end of 2011 that CO₂ emissions first visually mix into the Southern Hemisphere and begin to influence the atmospheric conditions of the entire globe.

Based on estimates of fossil fuel emissions for 2011 and 2012 by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), total global emissions increased from 9.4 billion metric tons of carbon in 2011 to 9.6 billion metric tons in 2012. These emissions produced a global accumulation of 9 ppm of CO₂ in the two years, which would be equal to a 2.3% increase of atmospheric CO₂ (relative to a global annual average of 390.5 ppm for 2011) from fossil fuel emissions every 2 years. Over a 10-year time period these emissions equate to 45 ppm of CO₂ or an increase of 11.5%. If this amount could somehow be confined completely to a global layer of pure CO₂ at the surface, it would be 36 cm, or 14” thick everywhere.

This video portrays purely how fossil fuel generated CO₂ is transported through the atmosphere, and does not account for the redistribution of CO₂ into the terrestrial biosphere and oceans. The actual observed atmospheric CO₂ increase is about half that shown, or about 5% per decade because approximately half of the emissions do not remain in the atmosphere, but are absorbed by the oceans and terrestrial plants.

For additional information, check out NOAA Carbontracker. CarbonTracker is a CO₂ measurement and modeling system developed by NOAA to keep track of sources (emissions to the atmosphere) and sinks (removal from the atmosphere) of carbon dioxide around the world. CarbonTracker uses atmospheric CO₂ observations from a host of collaborators and simulated atmospheric transport to estimate these surface fluxes of CO₂.